Stress-test the deal before the market does
Lesson 10 of 13 · Commercial deals
1 · Learn the move · Cognitive verifier
A base case is a guess wearing a suit. The skill is forcing AI to move the three levers that actually break a deal, rent growth, vacancy, exit cap. Show where the returns fall apart, then name the single assumption your whole thesis rests on. It models; you judge whether the downside is survivable.
You are an underwriter. Run some downside scenarios on this deal. [deal assumptions]
2 · Your turn. You write the prompt
Your base case pencils to a 16% IRR: 3% annual rent growth, 5% vacancy, exit at a 5.5% cap. Your partner asks the obvious question. What if you're wrong? Write a prompt that stress-tests it and tells you what actually matters.
Remember: the AI sees only your prompt, not this page. If the situation isn't in your prompt, it doesn't exist.
Optional. These shape the output when you run your prompt below, not your score.