Stress-test the deal before the market does
Rung 8 of 10 · Cognitive verifier
1 · Learn the move · Cognitive verifier
A base case is a guess wearing a suit. The skill is forcing AI to move the three levers that actually break a deal — rent growth, vacancy, exit cap — show where the returns fall apart, then name the single assumption your whole thesis rests on. It models; you judge whether the downside is survivable.
You are an underwriter. Run some downside scenarios on this deal. [deal assumptions]
2 · Your turn — you write the prompt
Your base case pencils to a 16% IRR: 3% annual rent growth, 5% vacancy, exit at a 5.5% cap. Your partner asks the obvious question — what if you're wrong? Write a prompt that stress-tests it and tells you what actually matters.
Remember: the AI sees only your prompt — not this page. If the situation isn't in your prompt, it doesn't exist.
Optional — these shape the output when you run your prompt below, not your score.