Write the submarket thesis - hard bans hold the line
Rung 4 of 10 · Constraints + negative instructions
1 · Learn the move · Constraints + negative instructions
A submarket investment-thesis memo lives or dies on its ban list. Every supporting figure traces to a pasted source or gets marked UNKNOWN - never a market statistic you invented, never a forecast number, never a cap rate the data doesn't carry. Any directional call is labeled as the analyst's read, not a fact. And the whole thing routes the decision to the IC: it is not investment advice. Structure the memo as thesis, supporting figures, risks, and open UNKNOWNs, then run a hard-negative check at the end. The bans are what make the memo safe to circulate - state them and obey them.
Write me a one-page investment thesis on this submarket from the data I'm pasting.
2 · Your turn. You write the prompt
You're drafting a one-page investment-thesis memo on the Eastport industrial submarket for an IC. Your pasted bundle: net absorption +640,000 SF trailing 12 months (CoStar, Q2 2026); vacancy 5.2%, down from 6.1% a year ago (CoStar, Q2 2026); rent comp 1 - Dockside lease at $9.75/SF NNN (broker comp, May 2026); rent comp 2 - Ironline lease at $9.40/SF NNN (broker comp, April 2026); deliveries note - roughly 1.4M SF in the pipeline through Q1 2028, preleasing mixed (CoStar pipeline, June 2026). You have no figure for construction starts, no cap-rate data, and no forecast. Write a prompt that produces the one-page memo - thesis as the analyst's read, each figure tagged to its source, thin areas left as open UNKNOWNs, risks listed, a hard-negative check, and a not-investment-advice line.
Remember: the AI sees only your prompt, not this page. If the situation isn't in your prompt, it doesn't exist.
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