Cap-rate trend. Show the comps, then critique them
Rung 8 of 10 · Cognitive verifier
1 · Learn the move · Cognitive verifier
A cap-rate trend brief is where overconfidence does the most damage: state a 'market cap rate' the comps don't support and the whole thesis tilts. A cognitive verifier forces the model to show its work, which comps, what period, what it assumed. Then run a critique pass over its own output. Derive an implied cap only where both price and NOI are pasted; a comp missing its NOI can't yield a cap, so it's UNKNOWN, never a guess. Quote the report's stated range exactly as printed. State the direction as directional, not precise, with a confidence line. The critique pass re-checks each cap against its inputs before the brief leaves your desk. And route the pricing decision to the reader, this isn't investment advice.
Look at these sale comps and tell me the market cap rate and where cap rates are trending.
2 · Your turn. You write the prompt
You're writing a cap-rate trend brief and paste four sale comps plus a report's stated range: Comp 1 $24,500,000 with NOI $1,590,000 (Jan 2026); Comp 2 $18,200,000 with NOI not disclosed (Mar 2026); Comp 3 $31,000,000 with NOI $1,950,000 (May 2026); Comp 4 $12,800,000 with NOI not disclosed (Jun 2026); report stated cap-rate range 6.25%–6.75% (report, Q2 2026). Two comps lack NOI, so their implied cap can't be computed. Write a prompt that derives implied caps only where price and NOI are both present, marks the other two UNKNOWN, quotes the report range as-pasted, states a directional trend with confidence, and runs a critique pass.
Remember: the AI sees only your prompt, not this page. If the situation isn't in your prompt, it doesn't exist.
Optional. These shape the output when you run your prompt below, not your score.